793
AXNT20 KNHC 041032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low
pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale-
force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions
of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at
least Sat night. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due
to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N16W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing from
04S to 04N between 24W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging extends across the basin with generally
quiet weather. Winds are moderate from the E to SE and seas are
mainly slight, except for fresh E winds and moderate seas in the
SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge southwestward into the SE U.S. into the weekend, with the
resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE
winds across the Gulf, except NE to E winds in the Bay of
Campeche. Expect winds to pulse fresh speeds each night off the
northern Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

Surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area
is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean where seas are moderate to rough, except very
rough offshore Colombia. In the Windward Passage, winds are fresh
to strong from the NE while moderate to fresh NE winds remain across
the lee side of Cuba and the remainder NW Caribbean along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, broad Atlantic high pressure will maintain a
ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U.S. into the weekend
to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds offshore of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through Sat. Fresh
to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba
will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of
Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from
Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in easterly
trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will subside
modestly Thu through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevail across the subtropical and tropical Atlantic
basin. The tail end of a stalled front weakens the ridge, entering
the area near 31N52W and extending to 25N65W. Scattered showers
remain ahead of the front reaching near 45W and N of 24N. Seas
are elevated to 10 ft across much of the eastern and central
Atlantic due to long period NE to E swell propagating from a
former gale-force low near Morocco. Elsewhere over the SW N
Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the east,
except fresh to locally strong S of 24N W of 55W, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas within these winds are
moderate to rough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will become
diffuse today. Rough seas N of the front will linger into tonight
while expanding southeastward and merging with easterly trade wind
swell S of 25N and E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high
pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic during
the next few days and produce fresh to strong E winds mostly south of 25N.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)